Brexit after years: An analyst from the Association for International Affairs revealed the chances of Britain returning to the EU

What would the United Kingdom have to do to rejoin the European Union?

If we were to focus on what the United Kingdom would have to do to be able to return to the European Union, we're talking about a complex process. As Kryštof Kruliš explained, the process of accession of a new member state is not simple:

"Basically, any European state that applies becomes a candidate, goes through that procedure, opens, discusses and closes those individual chapters with each state."

"This means that each state must go through several stages, during which it is checked whether it meets requirements such as the Copenhagen criteria concerning the rule of law, democracy and so on. In addition to this, there is of course the need to adapt to that European acquis communautaire, which is the set of laws that apply in Europe," continues the expert, "and there are of course also those material prerequisites, which must be met."

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Step by step

"There is still that procedural prerequisite of a new member state accession,"

the expert explains. In practice, this means that if a state wants to become a member of the EU, a certain change in the original Treaty of the European Union must occur, which must be approved by all existing member states. That would be another step that Britain would have to cope with.

In the case of Great Britain, which was a member of the European Union for several decades, accession to the EU would be somewhat specific.  "In many respects it actually adopted its legal regulation, caused by the legal regulation of Europe, so a lot of that work is actually done,"  explains Krulish. And although Britain is no longer a member of the EU, it still adheres to a certain extent to European rules, which could facilitate its return to the Union.

"Britain has a free trade agreement with the EU, which motivates it to essentially consider, and possibly adopt, a number of European laws that are adopted even when it is not a member."

This mechanism could be a key factor in facilitating Britain's return to the Union.

Exceptions and specifics of British membership

The United Kingdom had several exceptions during its EU membership, which is an important aspect of the whole process.

"When the UK was a member of the European Union, it had a number of exceptions from the beginning,"

continues the expert. This means, that the UK wasn't obliged to adopt the euro, it wasn't part of the common migration policy and many other rules didn't apply to it. But how does it look like today? "The question is, whether there would be will on the side of European Union to grant these exceptions to the same extent as it had them before," says the expert. This would mean, that the UK might need to change its legislation and adapt to the conditions that apply to other member states. That would certainly not be easy.

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Is UK's return to the EU realistic?

"It is a desire of a narrow circle of people who are ideologically inclined to the idea of European integration,"

the expert describes the situation in Britain. Even though such thoughts exist, they remain, according to him, rather in the narrow intellectual layer of British society. "Support for the relationship with the European Union or to some close relationship with the EU is, in my opinion, quite widespread in Britain, but at the same time, it is necessary to realize that Britain has gone through a very demanding process around the referendum on leaving the EU and subsequent negotiations," he explains. And the fact that Britain was the first country to leave the Union left a deep impression. The expert points out that political polarization in the UK still persists.

"The British don't want to go through this martyrdom again,"

he says, adding that public opinion in Britain remains divided, and that there is no greater social desire to return to the EU. Instead, the prevalent view is that it is better to close that issue and focus on other problems.

What did Britain lose and what did it gain?

Although Britain decided to leave the EU, it had its consequences, both positive and negative. The expert explains that in terms of trade, Britain has kept its free trade zone with the EU, which means no tariffs on most goods.

"A free trade zone is an acceptable tool for larger entrepreneurs and exporters,"

he says.

But not everything is without problems. "Even if there is zero duty, border controls remain," warns Kruliš. These checks mean administrative burdens that can become a problem, especially for smaller businesses.

"Small entrepreneurs very often give up, because they weigh what all they have to do, and decide to completely exclude Britain from their expansion plans," says the analyst.

On the other hand, Britain has freedom in negotiating trade agreements, and that is an opportunity. "Leaving the EU gave Britain the opportunity to negotiate trade agreements with other countries, especially former British colonies such as Australia, Canada, India," says Kryštof Kruliš.

The biggest challenge remains the issue of a trade agreement with the United States. "The main benefit would be if Britain managed to conclude a trade agreement with the United States," the analyst says. Even though the relationship between Britain and the United States, especially after the inauguration of Joe Biden, is not entirely simple, Britain continues to seek a path to better trade conditions.

"What Britain has managed quite elegantly is to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is a trade agreement among Pacific countries,"

explains the expert. This move opened the doors for Britain to markets in an area where there may be new business opportunities.

Sources: author's text, own questioning