The winner of the German elections is known in advance. Merz promises radical changes, the old school of post-war Germany is ending
The favourite of the weekend elections in Germany is CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz. There are big question marks, however, over who he could form a coalition with after the elections. Second on the tape is the extreme right AfD with which CDU/CSU agrees on the issue of solving migration. Following several attacks by illegal migrants in the country, the issue is coming to the forefront of political interest. Merz also faces demonstrations where the danger of a return of fascism in the country is often mentioned. The new government faces geopolitical problems and also economic changes.
"Top three topics across German voters according to YouGov survey. 34% pensions, 33% migration and asylum policy, 31% housing and rents. However, voters of each party logically focus on different topics. CDU/CSU: pensions, migration, economy. AfD: migration, crime, pensions. SPD: health care, housing and rents, economic inequality. Greens: climate protection, economic inequality, education. Linke: economic inequality, housing and rents, climate protection. The differences in topics are significant,"
Political analyst and professional election bettor Michal Syrový wrote on X topics that are resonating in Germany before the upcoming elections.
Germany overrides Trump's USA on the stock market
Economic issues are closely linked with another major topic of migration. Germany is the third largest economy in the world, trailing behind more populated countries such as USA and China. German factories, on the other hand, have a great hunger for labor. Foreigners have been streaming to the country for work, as so-called guest workers, since the mid-1950s.
At the same time, there is talk of problems in the German automotive industry, where the world's largest car manufacturer Volkswagen even closed several of its factories in the country, which is considered a symbol of the problems in the local economy.
The German stock index DAX is breaking records and its value growth is significantly surpassing its American counterpart. Investments in the American market make up 70% of all global investment costs and with Donald Trump's tariff policy, local investors are shifting their deposits to Germany. The reason is that even in the case of German shares, modern technology companies dominate, so the country is likely set for a certain economic transformation.
The need for new labor from foreign countries in the economy is beginning to elicit rejection at the political level. With the last wave of migration from the Near East, which started in 2015, the perception of foreigners in the country is changing. Several high-profile violent acts committed by migrants last year have become a fundamental issue of the current political campaign.
Will radical Merz reach for the controversial AfD?
Before the elections, Friedrich Merz initiated a vote in the Bundestag regarding tightening migration policy and did not hesitate to lean on the votes of the far-right AfD. In doing so, he violated the agreement of all other parties not to cooperate with a party with a Nazi tradition and financed by Russian money from the Kremlin.
Part of the German public is shocked by this collaboration and regularly holds demonstrations against Merz. These do not prevent his party from dominating the election preferences with a lead of almost 10% over the second AfD, but at the same time, after Sunday's vote, attention is drawn to who Merz will form a coalition with. Potential partners outside AfD in the form of social democrats with the retiring chancellor Olaf Scholz or Greens, radical solutions in the form of closing borders despite Schengen, refuse. CDU/CSU insists on them.
"Since the moment he took over the party leadership in 2022 after ten years of waiting, Merz promised to be radical. At 69 years old, he firmly belongs to the post-war generation of Germans from the baby-boom period, who considered stubborn stability a survival mechanism and the embodiment of their country's new brand. However, he decided to do without it. Even though it is not clear what will follow - Merz will still have to form a coalition with other more centrist parties, old school conservatism is over. Now that he has started, does anyone really believe that he will not cooperate with the AfD in the future?"
evaluates the fundamental problem of German politics before the elections on the Politico server British expert on local politics John Kampfner. Thus, he agrees with the fears of demonstrators from German streets and considers Merz's rejecting attitude towards AfD as temporary.
Sources: author's text, Politico, Worldometers, Novinky.cz, CNBC, X.com
